What happened in NH?

[petardier]

Why did Hillary do so much better than expected in NH? A Dailykos article discusses a number of possibilities. The conclusion? They don't quite have the data yet, but they tilt toward the theory that the Clinton team's field operations to get out the vote were very successful.

What else do we know? Obama's numbers were about what was expected. Clinton's were higher than expected. Late deciders tended slightly more to Hillary, but not enough to account for the full margin of victory. There were about the expected number of independents voting in the Democratic primary. There's no evidence for fraud or irregularities. There's no evidence yet that the "crying incident" helped Hillary (though many believe it did).

I'd love to know if the general media hostility to Hillary (eg Chris Mathews) played a role (and many think it did), but I can't believe any of our major media outlets would even be capable of asking the question.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/13/105314/137/225/436062

There's also a long comment thread that veers into conspiracy theory at times.

Comments

I still go by my explanation

[(Anonymous)]

The swing between NH polls before Iowa and after was way too big to be believed. We in NH are not that fickle. The polls before Iowa were correct. The polls after Iowa were wrong. All of them. While that defies belief on the surfact, if there is a common reason why they were all wrong, then it is in fact the simplest of all possible explanations, ergo Occam's Razor says it is the best explanation. And the underlying reason is that Clinton supporters were much less likely to be talking to pollsters in the final week. They were older and more likely to be aggravated by the incessant phone calls, ergo less likely to answer. They were less committed to a "cause", ergo less eager to talk to anyone. And their candidate was under seige, ergo they just wanted to ignore the whole thing until the vote.

I've read all the other theories, and none of them fit what I know about New Hamsphire voters better than this.